TABLE OF CONTENTS<\/h2>- INTRODUCTION<\/a><\/li>
- RECAP OF 2018 RENTAL TRENDS<\/a><\/li>
- INSIGHTS FOR 2019<\/a><\/li>
- IN TORONTO:<\/a><\/li>
- IN VANCOUVER:\u00a0\u00a0<\/a><\/li>
- IN OTTAWA:\u00a0\u00a0<\/a><\/li>
- IN MONTREAL:\u00a0\u00a0<\/a><\/li>
- IN HALIFAX:<\/a><\/li>
- IN WINNIPEG:<\/a><\/li>
- IN CALGARY:<\/a><\/li>
- IN EDMONTON:<\/a><\/li>
- IN ST JOHNS:\u00a0<\/a><\/li>
- IN SASKATOON: <\/a><\/li>
- SOME HOPEFUL SIGNS FOR THE RENTAL MARKET IN 2019 <\/a><\/li>
- RENTALS.CA\u2019S 2019 PREDICTIONS\u00a0<\/a><\/li><\/ol><\/div>\n<\/a>
1. INTRODUCTION<\/h3>
Finding the right apartment, house or townhouse to call home will continue to challenge renters in 2019 in most of Canada’s larger cities, according to housing experts from around the country.<\/span><\/p>The low vacancy rates added to increased immigration and higher interest rates will also drive monthly rents even higher, experts said in <\/span>Rentals.ca<\/span><\/a>‘s predictions for 2019. <\/span><\/p>The average rental rates will increase by 6 per cent year over year on a national basis in 2019, according to <\/span>Rentals.ca recently released monthly rent report<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>Annual rental rates could increase as much as 11 per cent in Toronto, 9 per cent in Ottawa and 7 per cent in Vancouver, according to the rent report.<\/span><\/p>Rentals.ca talked to 16 housing professionals including data analysts, professors, economists, property managers, rental advocates, landlords and politicians to get their take on the 2019 rental market in Canada.<\/span><\/p><\/a>2. RECAP OF 2018 RENTAL TRENDS<\/h3>
![\"Ben](\"https:\/\/rentals.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/3-Ben-1024x654.png\")
<\/p>
Ben Myers<\/b>, president of <\/span>Bullpen Research & Consulting Inc.<\/span><\/a>, a boutique residential real estate advisory firm, said low vacancies and higher rents are trends that will carry over from 2018. He also cited increased immigration and “renoviction” as issues continuing into the new year. Here are his insights on trends that will carry over from 2018 to 2019:<\/span><\/p>\n- Vacancy rates are getting even lower in several major Canadian cities including Vancouver and Toronto. Tougher rent-control rules have led to more investors selling their rental properties, which has contributed to the spike in rental rates in several cities. The trend is likely to continue in 2019.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>
\n- Immigration is at a record high nationally and expected to increase in 2019. The change in the mortgage stress test has reduced credit availability and pushed more people to rent that were looking to buy in 2018. The increase in rental demand has not been offset by new supply. From January to October 2018, the combined number of new rental housing units built across all of the Census Metropolitan Areas in Canada has been just under 32,000 units, an increase of nearly 6,000 units over the same period last year, but hardly enough to satisfy the additional demand from immigration and reduced home-buying activity.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>
\n- With the unemployment rate in Canada at its lowest level since the measure became an official statistic in 1976, young professionals with stable employment will be looking at creating new households. In places like downtown Toronto, new household formations will add to demand and create more bidding wars and intense competition for quality rentals. The “renoviction” trend will likely increase as well, as landlords continue to upgrade their properties to luxury apartment rentals<\/a>, to target luxury tenants.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>
According to the <\/span>Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (<\/span>CMHC), <\/span>demand for rentals is outstripping supply<\/span><\/a>, with the national vacancy rate falling to 2.4 per cent. That’s the lowest it’s been since 2009. <\/span><\/p>“The decrease in the vacancy rate was attributable in part to the strong increase in international migration. This factor, combined with the growth in youth employment and the aging of the population, drove up demand for rental housing.” said <\/span>Aled ab Iorwerth<\/b>, deputy chief economist at CMHC.<\/span><\/p><\/a>3. INSIGHTS FOR 2019<\/h3>
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/rentals.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/6-Dr-David-1024x654.png\")
<\/p>
Dr.<\/b> J.David Hulchanski<\/b>, professor of Housing and Community Development at the University of Toronto’s Factor-Inwentash Faculty of Social Work, and <\/span>Ted Tsiakopoulos<\/b>, regional economist (Ontario) for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) cited four factors affecting vacancy rates: The challenges of home ownership among first-time buyers causing them to stay in the rental market; home owners deciding against moving to stay in their homes longer tightening that market; higher interest rates; and the surge in international immigration in recent years making the rental market more competitive.<\/span><\/p>Dr. Hulchanski said rents will continue to increase especially in Toronto, Vancouver<\/span> and<\/span> Ottawa.<\/span><\/p>“There’s no reason why they would not,” he said. <\/span><\/p>AFFORDABLE HOUSING DEFINITION<\/b><\/p>
To best understand this report, it is important to have a concrete understanding of housing affordability. The city of Toronto defines “affordable housing” as anywhere between 80 per cent and 100 per cent of market value. “Deeply affordable housing” is defined at 40 per cent of market rate. This means that <\/span>an affordable rental in Toronto or Vancouver equates to around $2,000 per month for a one-bedroom<\/span><\/a>. <\/span><\/p><\/a>4. IN TORONTO:<\/h3>
MORE RENTAL UNITS NEEDED ‘AT EACH AND EVERY PRICE POINT’<\/b><\/p>
![\"Richard](\"https:\/\/rentals.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/15-Richard-Florida-1024x654.png\")
<\/p>
“The big issue to me in the Toronto rental market is not just price or affordability but inventory or supply,” said <\/span>Dr. Richard Florida<\/b>, professor and Director of Cities at the <\/span>Martin Prosperity Institute <\/span><\/a>at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management.<\/span><\/p>“We need to build a lot more rental housing at each and every price point.”<\/span><\/p>Tsiakopoulos agrees.<\/span><\/p>“(Vacancy Rates in) major centres in Ontario remain near historic lows,” he said. But<\/span> he is hopeful that vacancy rates will begin to rise in “12 to 24 months as more rentals are being built” to accommodate the increasing demand. <\/span><\/p>This is being accomplished through Canada’s <\/span>National Housing Strategy<\/span><\/a> in “a collaborative approach at every level of government” to address the growing affordable housing crisis.<\/span> The National Housing Strategy, announced Nov. 22, 2017, is a 10-year, $40 billion plan that will give more Canadians a place to call home.<\/span><\/p>![\"\"](\"https:\/\/rentals.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/16-Ted-1024x654.png\")
<\/p>
Tsiakopoulos explained, “(By the year 2030), “CMHC is aiming to put every Canadian in not only an affordable home but also one that meets their housing needs.” <\/span><\/p>The city of Toronto will work with the federal and provincial governments on <\/span>Mayor John Tory’s <\/span> recently proposed “Housing Now” initiative<\/span>. <\/b>This initiative activates “11 transit-oriented sites” – currently surplus city land — which will create not only affordable housing, but also as <\/span>Valesa Faria<\/b>, Affordable Housing Development manager in Toronto puts it, will help to “create complete communities across the city.” <\/span><\/p>![\"\"](\"https:\/\/rentals.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/17-Valesa-1024x654.png\")
<\/p>
Faria said that the mayor’s goal is to add 40,000 units in the next 12 years. She said the city hopes to realize 3,300 or more affordable units a year, beginning in 2020<\/span><\/p>But Myers pointed out that Toronto has the lowest turnover rate <\/span>in the country, and perhaps the lowest in North America at 11 per cent, which will lead to higher rents. <\/span><\/p>“With increasing rents and declining credit availability for mortgages, residents are likely to stay put, he said. “With expanded rent control implemented in 2017, tenants are incentivized to stay in their current home. This is not ideal, as some people may choose not to take a job in another part of the city because of higher rents. As fewer units are turned over, there is less supply, and rental rates increase further.<\/span><\/p>“The dynamic is shifting away from ‘bubbly’ house prices to ‘bubbly’ rental rates,” Myers said. <\/span><\/p>He added that economists are calling for another two increases in interest rates in 2019.<\/span><\/p>The <\/span>Bank of Canada raised interest rates 5 times in 2018<\/span><\/a>, with the benchmark rate ending at 1.75 per cent in October. In a press release following the last rate increase, the Bank of Canada stated it “will continue to take into account how the economy is adjusting to higher interest rates, given the elevated level of household debt.”<\/span><\/p>Economists expect rates to keep climbing over 2019<\/span><\/a> as the economy regains a solid footing.<\/span><\/p>Dr. Hulchanski also said he believes student housing is one of Toronto’s greatest challenges.<\/span><\/p>“With 70,000 students at the University of Toronto’s three campuses,” he said. “pressure on the rental market intensifies even more.” <\/span><\/p>He said there is no federal or provincial aid for students right now. In the 1960s\/70s, building student housing<\/a> was part of the social housing program. This program provided subsidies to building companies to encourage the creation of student-designated housing, but that no longer exists. This adds to the major need for affordable housing among the general population, and as Dr. Hulchanski pointed out, “There’s no fancy way to fix the affordable housing crisis.” <\/span><\/p>“We claimed to have some housing problems back then, and we did,” he said. “But it is much worse today. Families are now being forced to double up in units, and this is putting stress on building systems and creating even worse issues.” <\/span><\/p><\/a>5. IN VANCOUVER: <\/h3>AFFORDABLE HOUSING PROBLEM COULD GET WORSE<\/b><\/h4>
![\"Colleen](\"https:\/\/rentals.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/5-Colleen-1024x654.png\")
<\/p>
In Vancouver,<\/span> <\/b>City Councilwoman<\/span> Colleen Hardwick <\/b>wants to see her city take a more aggressive posture in dealing with affordable housing.<\/span><\/p>When asked if there are sufficient affordable rentals in Vancouver, Hardwick said, <\/span>“<\/b>No, obviously not. Seniors are being forced out of their homes. There are rental evictions; aggressive buyouts.”<\/span><\/p>She said the provincial school tax puts an unfair burden on Vancouver homeowners who pay a disproportionate amount of taxes funding British Columbia schools. In 2019, Vancouver homes valued at $3 million or more will pay even more of the school tax. About a quarter of Vancouver homes are at the $3 million valuation level and more, according to research by Andy Yan, director of the Simon Fraser University City Program. <\/span><\/p>“As those taxes are implemented,” Hardwick said. “Seniors are going to be losing their homes.” <\/span><\/p>The newly elected councilwoman hopes to see a more balanced rental market in 2019 where there are more options for renters and taxes are reined in.<\/span><\/p>She believes that more diverse housing types in single-family neighbourhoods “are the kinds of housing forms that people enjoy rather than being crammed into high rises.” Hardwick is pushing for more equalized housing that sees traditional middle class apartment dwellers mixing in with higher income single families.<\/span><\/p>She’s taking a wait-and-see-attitude on the city’s recent law to limit foreign housing investments and the city’s push to create rental-only zones.<\/span><\/p>Hardwick cited interest rates, housing price stabilization, flipping properties, and building newer rentals to replace older buildings as the issues to watch in 2019 for Vancouver.<\/span><\/p>![\"Jean](\"https:\/\/rentals.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/10-Jean-Swanson-1024x654.png\")
<\/p>
Jean Swanson, <\/b>another Vancouver City Councilwoman, is also worried about affordability. <\/span><\/p>“Lots of young people are living with their family until they are 35,” she said. “And many are doubling, tripling and quadroubling up.” She said she met a young couple whose rent is only $500 per month, but they were living with six others in a two-bedroom. <\/span><\/p> “The issue is scarcity; the vacancy rate is low,” she said. “Owners are buying out buildings at inflated prices, and without vacancy control they are buying out the tenants…the older the building, the more vulnerable the tenants.“ <\/span><\/p>Swanson explained that vacany control would solve this, as would a rent freeze on the 2.5 per cent increase. She explained that vacancy control would prevent landlords from raising rents in between tenants, and a rent freeze would make yearly increases impossible. <\/span><\/p>Swanson also wants to reduce homelessness by introducing more affordable units in Vancouver by building more modular homes. <\/span><\/p>“We had 600 units of modular housing built over last year,” she said. These 320-square-foot houses are built offsite and moved to a location. They are small but functional with their own independent bathrooms and can be made permanent with a foundation.<\/span><\/p>And, she said the modular homes can be built in nine weeks.<\/span><\/p> “In my experience, it takes three to seven years to build a social-housing building in Vancouver, she said.<\/span><\/p>“We could build modular homes for homeless people and eradicate homelessness in Vancouver in a year, if we had enough revenue,” Swanson added, “Taxpayers would end up saving money, because it is cheaper to house homeless than to have them on the streets.” <\/span><\/p><\/a>6. IN OTTAWA: <\/h3>INVESTORS LIKE NEIGHBOURHOODS WITH NEARBY TRANSIT<\/b><\/h4>
![\"Rich](\"https:\/\/rentals.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/14-Rich-Dandy-1024x654.png\")
<\/p>
On the investment side of the rental market, <\/span>Rich Danby,<\/b> owner of Rich Ottawa Investments and ROI Construction in Ottawa, sees continuing opportunities for investors, but he also cautions that affordability and low vacancy rates will have to be dealt with in the country’s capital city. <\/span><\/p>“There are higher rents than ever before. For a two-bedroom, the average rent rose by its highest level in 15 years, as higher interest rates and higher mortgages discourage tenants from buying a home.” Danby thinks this problem will continue. <\/span><\/p>“They are topics no one wants to discuss,” he said. When it comes to affordable housing, “it’s hard to get politicians on the record.” He said incentives for investors such as deferred taxes would help, but he added, there are no easy solutions to this problem. <\/span><\/p>Danby, president of the <\/span>Ottawa Real Estate Investors Organization<\/span><\/a>, believes nearby transportation in Ottawa neighborhoods will have a bigger influence on where investors choose to put their money. <\/span><\/p>He’s bullish on the Stittsville and Little Italy communities because of the proximity of light rail transit, and he likes Ottawa Apartments<\/a> in the Lebreton Flats neighbourhood because of its high walk score, nearby transit and good restaurants.<\/span><\/p>Danby said he believes millennials (ages 25 to 34) will continue to outpace Baby Boomers and Gen Xers as the majority of renters. Most other experts we talked to agree.<\/span><\/p>“Millennials are not as keen to settle down, ” Danby said. “They care more about convenience and amenities, and are looking more at quality of life.”<\/span><\/p>![\"Matt](\"https:\/\/rentals.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/12-Matt-1024x654.png\")
<\/p>
Matt Danison<\/b>, CEO of Rentals.ca, said to attract and keep millennials, landlords will have to think tech, along with more amenities and convenience. <\/span><\/p>For example, he said a breakfast bar vendor offering coffee, juice oatmeal and pastries could be available in a common area of a rental building in the mornings. Or, he suggested that a cook could be available a few hours in the evening to grill chicken and toss a salad.<\/span><\/p>He said free WiFi, smart appliances and co-working spaces and nearby transit are attractions millennials want. <\/span><\/p><\/a>7. IN MONTREAL: <\/h3>WITH THE MOST RENTAL STOCK, MORE TO BE BUILT IN 2019<\/b><\/h4>
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/rentals.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/7-Francis-1024x654.png\")
<\/p>
Montreal has more rental stock than any other big city in Canada, <\/span>Francis Cortellino<\/b>, economist for the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said. And, he added, the city will see even more Montreal rentals<\/a> built and open up in 2019.<\/span><\/p>Immigration is a major factor in Montreal, and many immigrants choose renting over buying in their first few years. He said more demand for rentals has pushed rent increases up about 2.5 per cent. <\/span><\/p>Cortellino said “Montreal rents are more affordable because of the higher number of units, and because there are more older rental buildings.”<\/span><\/p>Montreal has been and will probably always be one of most affordable markets, he said. Between the years 2011 and 2016, the number of renters increased nationwide, but this increase tracked “lower in Montreal when compared to other major cities such as Vancouver and Toronto.”<\/span><\/p>Cortellino said it will be interesting to see if the increase in rental construction in 2019 will keep up with demand, and if the trend of more rental buildings being built than condos will change in 2019. <\/span><\/p><\/a>8. IN HALIFAX:<\/h3>IN A TIGHT RACE, BUT DEMAND STILL OUTPACES SUPPLY<\/b><\/h4>
![\"Neil](\"https:\/\/rentals.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/13-Neil-1024x654.png\")
<\/p>
In Halifax, <\/span>Neil Lovitt<\/b>, housing analyst and senior manager for Turner Drake & Partners Ltd., sees the continued population growth of the city spurred by high immigration rates as the major factor affecting housing in 2019. <\/span><\/p>Even with “a larger pipeline of rental housing under construction,” Lovitt said. “Supply and demand are in a tight race, but so far demand has been winning.”<\/span><\/p>Lovitt said, “by definition, the need for affordable, non-market housing cannot be met by the market,” He described the problem as “a broader social issue that should be met by society at large.” He said the government could help ease the problem with “direct supplementation to households and the creation of new non-market units.<\/span><\/p>“Though the rental space is going gangbusters, our overall pace of housing construction has not really strayed from the historic average,” Lovitt said. “Expanding development opportunities and streamlining approval processes should help us keep pace if demand continues at these rates over the long term.”<\/span><\/p><\/a>9. IN WINNIPEG:<\/h3>RENTS LIKELY TO INCREASE 3 PER CENT TO 5 PER CENT<\/b><\/h4>
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/rentals.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/2-Avron-1024x654.png\")
<\/p>
Avrom Charach,<\/b> vice president of Kay Four Properties, Inc., said the main factors that will affect the rental market in Winnipeg in 2019 are rent control, immigration and construction.<\/span><\/p>
1. INTRODUCTION<\/h3>
Finding the right apartment, house or townhouse to call home will continue to challenge renters in 2019 in most of Canada’s larger cities, according to housing experts from around the country.<\/span><\/p> The low vacancy rates added to increased immigration and higher interest rates will also drive monthly rents even higher, experts said in <\/span>Rentals.ca<\/span><\/a>‘s predictions for 2019. <\/span><\/p> The average rental rates will increase by 6 per cent year over year on a national basis in 2019, according to <\/span>Rentals.ca recently released monthly rent report<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p> Annual rental rates could increase as much as 11 per cent in Toronto, 9 per cent in Ottawa and 7 per cent in Vancouver, according to the rent report.<\/span><\/p> Rentals.ca talked to 16 housing professionals including data analysts, professors, economists, property managers, rental advocates, landlords and politicians to get their take on the 2019 rental market in Canada.<\/span><\/p><\/a> Ben Myers<\/b>, president of <\/span>Bullpen Research & Consulting Inc.<\/span><\/a>, a boutique residential real estate advisory firm, said low vacancies and higher rents are trends that will carry over from 2018. He also cited increased immigration and “renoviction” as issues continuing into the new year. Here are his insights on trends that will carry over from 2018 to 2019:<\/span><\/p> According to the <\/span>Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (<\/span>CMHC), <\/span>demand for rentals is outstripping supply<\/span><\/a>, with the national vacancy rate falling to 2.4 per cent. That’s the lowest it’s been since 2009. <\/span><\/p> “The decrease in the vacancy rate was attributable in part to the strong increase in international migration. This factor, combined with the growth in youth employment and the aging of the population, drove up demand for rental housing.” said <\/span>Aled ab Iorwerth<\/b>, deputy chief economist at CMHC.<\/span><\/p><\/a> Dr.<\/b> J.David Hulchanski<\/b>, professor of Housing and Community Development at the University of Toronto’s Factor-Inwentash Faculty of Social Work, and <\/span>Ted Tsiakopoulos<\/b>, regional economist (Ontario) for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) cited four factors affecting vacancy rates: The challenges of home ownership among first-time buyers causing them to stay in the rental market; home owners deciding against moving to stay in their homes longer tightening that market; higher interest rates; and the surge in international immigration in recent years making the rental market more competitive.<\/span><\/p> Dr. Hulchanski said rents will continue to increase especially in Toronto, Vancouver<\/span> and<\/span> Ottawa.<\/span><\/p> “There’s no reason why they would not,” he said. <\/span><\/p> AFFORDABLE HOUSING DEFINITION<\/b><\/p> To best understand this report, it is important to have a concrete understanding of housing affordability. The city of Toronto defines “affordable housing” as anywhere between 80 per cent and 100 per cent of market value. “Deeply affordable housing” is defined at 40 per cent of market rate. This means that <\/span>an affordable rental in Toronto or Vancouver equates to around $2,000 per month for a one-bedroom<\/span><\/a>. <\/span><\/p><\/a> MORE RENTAL UNITS NEEDED ‘AT EACH AND EVERY PRICE POINT’<\/b><\/p> “The big issue to me in the Toronto rental market is not just price or affordability but inventory or supply,” said <\/span>Dr. Richard Florida<\/b>, professor and Director of Cities at the <\/span>Martin Prosperity Institute <\/span><\/a>at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management.<\/span><\/p> “We need to build a lot more rental housing at each and every price point.”<\/span><\/p> Tsiakopoulos agrees.<\/span><\/p> “(Vacancy Rates in) major centres in Ontario remain near historic lows,” he said. But<\/span> he is hopeful that vacancy rates will begin to rise in “12 to 24 months as more rentals are being built” to accommodate the increasing demand. <\/span><\/p> This is being accomplished through Canada’s <\/span>National Housing Strategy<\/span><\/a> in “a collaborative approach at every level of government” to address the growing affordable housing crisis.<\/span> The National Housing Strategy, announced Nov. 22, 2017, is a 10-year, $40 billion plan that will give more Canadians a place to call home.<\/span><\/p> Tsiakopoulos explained, “(By the year 2030), “CMHC is aiming to put every Canadian in not only an affordable home but also one that meets their housing needs.” <\/span><\/p> The city of Toronto will work with the federal and provincial governments on <\/span>Mayor John Tory’s <\/span> recently proposed “Housing Now” initiative<\/span>. <\/b>This initiative activates “11 transit-oriented sites” – currently surplus city land — which will create not only affordable housing, but also as <\/span>Valesa Faria<\/b>, Affordable Housing Development manager in Toronto puts it, will help to “create complete communities across the city.” <\/span><\/p> Faria said that the mayor’s goal is to add 40,000 units in the next 12 years. She said the city hopes to realize 3,300 or more affordable units a year, beginning in 2020<\/span><\/p> But Myers pointed out that Toronto has the lowest turnover rate <\/span>in the country, and perhaps the lowest in North America at 11 per cent, which will lead to higher rents. <\/span><\/p> “With increasing rents and declining credit availability for mortgages, residents are likely to stay put, he said. “With expanded rent control implemented in 2017, tenants are incentivized to stay in their current home. This is not ideal, as some people may choose not to take a job in another part of the city because of higher rents. As fewer units are turned over, there is less supply, and rental rates increase further.<\/span><\/p> “The dynamic is shifting away from ‘bubbly’ house prices to ‘bubbly’ rental rates,” Myers said. <\/span><\/p> He added that economists are calling for another two increases in interest rates in 2019.<\/span><\/p> The <\/span>Bank of Canada raised interest rates 5 times in 2018<\/span><\/a>, with the benchmark rate ending at 1.75 per cent in October. In a press release following the last rate increase, the Bank of Canada stated it “will continue to take into account how the economy is adjusting to higher interest rates, given the elevated level of household debt.”<\/span><\/p> Economists expect rates to keep climbing over 2019<\/span><\/a> as the economy regains a solid footing.<\/span><\/p> Dr. Hulchanski also said he believes student housing is one of Toronto’s greatest challenges.<\/span><\/p> “With 70,000 students at the University of Toronto’s three campuses,” he said. “pressure on the rental market intensifies even more.” <\/span><\/p> He said there is no federal or provincial aid for students right now. In the 1960s\/70s, building student housing<\/a> was part of the social housing program. This program provided subsidies to building companies to encourage the creation of student-designated housing, but that no longer exists. This adds to the major need for affordable housing among the general population, and as Dr. Hulchanski pointed out, “There’s no fancy way to fix the affordable housing crisis.” <\/span><\/p> “We claimed to have some housing problems back then, and we did,” he said. “But it is much worse today. Families are now being forced to double up in units, and this is putting stress on building systems and creating even worse issues.” <\/span><\/p><\/a> In Vancouver,<\/span> <\/b>City Councilwoman<\/span> Colleen Hardwick <\/b>wants to see her city take a more aggressive posture in dealing with affordable housing.<\/span><\/p> When asked if there are sufficient affordable rentals in Vancouver, Hardwick said, <\/span>“<\/b>No, obviously not. Seniors are being forced out of their homes. There are rental evictions; aggressive buyouts.”<\/span><\/p> She said the provincial school tax puts an unfair burden on Vancouver homeowners who pay a disproportionate amount of taxes funding British Columbia schools. In 2019, Vancouver homes valued at $3 million or more will pay even more of the school tax. About a quarter of Vancouver homes are at the $3 million valuation level and more, according to research by Andy Yan, director of the Simon Fraser University City Program. <\/span><\/p> “As those taxes are implemented,” Hardwick said. “Seniors are going to be losing their homes.” <\/span><\/p> The newly elected councilwoman hopes to see a more balanced rental market in 2019 where there are more options for renters and taxes are reined in.<\/span><\/p> She believes that more diverse housing types in single-family neighbourhoods “are the kinds of housing forms that people enjoy rather than being crammed into high rises.” Hardwick is pushing for more equalized housing that sees traditional middle class apartment dwellers mixing in with higher income single families.<\/span><\/p> She’s taking a wait-and-see-attitude on the city’s recent law to limit foreign housing investments and the city’s push to create rental-only zones.<\/span><\/p> Hardwick cited interest rates, housing price stabilization, flipping properties, and building newer rentals to replace older buildings as the issues to watch in 2019 for Vancouver.<\/span><\/p> Jean Swanson, <\/b>another Vancouver City Councilwoman, is also worried about affordability. <\/span><\/p> “Lots of young people are living with their family until they are 35,” she said. “And many are doubling, tripling and quadroubling up.” She said she met a young couple whose rent is only $500 per month, but they were living with six others in a two-bedroom. <\/span><\/p> “The issue is scarcity; the vacancy rate is low,” she said. “Owners are buying out buildings at inflated prices, and without vacancy control they are buying out the tenants…the older the building, the more vulnerable the tenants.“ <\/span><\/p> Swanson explained that vacany control would solve this, as would a rent freeze on the 2.5 per cent increase. She explained that vacancy control would prevent landlords from raising rents in between tenants, and a rent freeze would make yearly increases impossible. <\/span><\/p> Swanson also wants to reduce homelessness by introducing more affordable units in Vancouver by building more modular homes. <\/span><\/p> “We had 600 units of modular housing built over last year,” she said. These 320-square-foot houses are built offsite and moved to a location. They are small but functional with their own independent bathrooms and can be made permanent with a foundation.<\/span><\/p> And, she said the modular homes can be built in nine weeks.<\/span><\/p> “In my experience, it takes three to seven years to build a social-housing building in Vancouver, she said.<\/span><\/p> “We could build modular homes for homeless people and eradicate homelessness in Vancouver in a year, if we had enough revenue,” Swanson added, “Taxpayers would end up saving money, because it is cheaper to house homeless than to have them on the streets.” <\/span><\/p><\/a> On the investment side of the rental market, <\/span>Rich Danby,<\/b> owner of Rich Ottawa Investments and ROI Construction in Ottawa, sees continuing opportunities for investors, but he also cautions that affordability and low vacancy rates will have to be dealt with in the country’s capital city. <\/span><\/p> “There are higher rents than ever before. For a two-bedroom, the average rent rose by its highest level in 15 years, as higher interest rates and higher mortgages discourage tenants from buying a home.” Danby thinks this problem will continue. <\/span><\/p> “They are topics no one wants to discuss,” he said. When it comes to affordable housing, “it’s hard to get politicians on the record.” He said incentives for investors such as deferred taxes would help, but he added, there are no easy solutions to this problem. <\/span><\/p> Danby, president of the <\/span>Ottawa Real Estate Investors Organization<\/span><\/a>, believes nearby transportation in Ottawa neighborhoods will have a bigger influence on where investors choose to put their money. <\/span><\/p> He’s bullish on the Stittsville and Little Italy communities because of the proximity of light rail transit, and he likes Ottawa Apartments<\/a> in the Lebreton Flats neighbourhood because of its high walk score, nearby transit and good restaurants.<\/span><\/p> Danby said he believes millennials (ages 25 to 34) will continue to outpace Baby Boomers and Gen Xers as the majority of renters. Most other experts we talked to agree.<\/span><\/p> “Millennials are not as keen to settle down, ” Danby said. “They care more about convenience and amenities, and are looking more at quality of life.”<\/span><\/p> Matt Danison<\/b>, CEO of Rentals.ca, said to attract and keep millennials, landlords will have to think tech, along with more amenities and convenience. <\/span><\/p> For example, he said a breakfast bar vendor offering coffee, juice oatmeal and pastries could be available in a common area of a rental building in the mornings. Or, he suggested that a cook could be available a few hours in the evening to grill chicken and toss a salad.<\/span><\/p> He said free WiFi, smart appliances and co-working spaces and nearby transit are attractions millennials want. <\/span><\/p><\/a> Montreal has more rental stock than any other big city in Canada, <\/span>Francis Cortellino<\/b>, economist for the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said. And, he added, the city will see even more Montreal rentals<\/a> built and open up in 2019.<\/span><\/p> Immigration is a major factor in Montreal, and many immigrants choose renting over buying in their first few years. He said more demand for rentals has pushed rent increases up about 2.5 per cent. <\/span><\/p> Cortellino said “Montreal rents are more affordable because of the higher number of units, and because there are more older rental buildings.”<\/span><\/p> Montreal has been and will probably always be one of most affordable markets, he said. Between the years 2011 and 2016, the number of renters increased nationwide, but this increase tracked “lower in Montreal when compared to other major cities such as Vancouver and Toronto.”<\/span><\/p> Cortellino said it will be interesting to see if the increase in rental construction in 2019 will keep up with demand, and if the trend of more rental buildings being built than condos will change in 2019. <\/span><\/p><\/a> In Halifax, <\/span>Neil Lovitt<\/b>, housing analyst and senior manager for Turner Drake & Partners Ltd., sees the continued population growth of the city spurred by high immigration rates as the major factor affecting housing in 2019. <\/span><\/p> Even with “a larger pipeline of rental housing under construction,” Lovitt said. “Supply and demand are in a tight race, but so far demand has been winning.”<\/span><\/p> Lovitt said, “by definition, the need for affordable, non-market housing cannot be met by the market,” He described the problem as “a broader social issue that should be met by society at large.” He said the government could help ease the problem with “direct supplementation to households and the creation of new non-market units.<\/span><\/p> “Though the rental space is going gangbusters, our overall pace of housing construction has not really strayed from the historic average,” Lovitt said. “Expanding development opportunities and streamlining approval processes should help us keep pace if demand continues at these rates over the long term.”<\/span><\/p><\/a> Avrom Charach,<\/b> vice president of Kay Four Properties, Inc., said the main factors that will affect the rental market in Winnipeg in 2019 are rent control, immigration and construction.<\/span><\/p>2. RECAP OF 2018 RENTAL TRENDS<\/h3>
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3. INSIGHTS FOR 2019<\/h3>
<\/p>4. IN TORONTO:<\/h3>
<\/p><\/p><\/p>5. IN VANCOUVER: <\/h3>
AFFORDABLE HOUSING PROBLEM COULD GET WORSE<\/b><\/h4>
<\/p><\/p>6. IN OTTAWA: <\/h3>
INVESTORS LIKE NEIGHBOURHOODS WITH NEARBY TRANSIT<\/b><\/h4>
<\/p><\/p>7. IN MONTREAL: <\/h3>
WITH THE MOST RENTAL STOCK, MORE TO BE BUILT IN 2019<\/b><\/h4>
<\/p>8. IN HALIFAX:<\/h3>
IN A TIGHT RACE, BUT DEMAND STILL OUTPACES SUPPLY<\/b><\/h4>
<\/p>9. IN WINNIPEG:<\/h3>
RENTS LIKELY TO INCREASE 3 PER CENT TO 5 PER CENT<\/b><\/h4>
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