{"id":1804,"date":"2020-11-06T08:51:47","date_gmt":"2020-11-06T08:51:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rentals.ca\/blog\/?p=1804"},"modified":"2022-03-29T17:28:17","modified_gmt":"2022-03-29T17:28:17","slug":"one-solution-to-torontos-housing-crisis-could-be-hiding-in-plain-sight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rentals.ca\/blog\/one-solution-to-torontos-housing-crisis-could-be-hiding-in-plain-sight","title":{"rendered":"One solution to Toronto\u2019s housing crisis could be hiding in plain sight\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

Across Toronto and the wider region, rental sites could potentially add up to 176,000 new units to meet crushing demand. These 950 infill sites are already purchased and zoned \u2014 there\u2019s simply room and an opportunity to add more.<\/span><\/p>\n

A recent<\/span> rental market study<\/span><\/a> projects a shortage of up to 200,000 rental units in the Toronto and the Greater Hamilton Area (GTHA) within a decade, a trend that has been pushing vacancies low and prices high. But with a global pandemic blunting travel, immigration, employment and student accommodation<\/a>, Toronto has suddenly tipped in the opposite direction:<\/span> landlords courting tenants<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Urbanization report — prepared for the Federation of Rental-Housing Providers of Ontario (FRPO) — considers COVID-19 and still anticipates \u201ca return to base projections\u201d by 2022. According to its calculations, the long-term demand remains \u2014 and hidden in plain sight could be the potential to meet it.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span>Roughly 60,000 rental units possible near rapid transit<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"\u201cA lot of the sites are concentrated outside of the downtown core in relatively affordable markets. The other thing that\u2019s important is that over 35 per cent of the potential units that we identify through this report are within 800 meters of a current or future transit station.\u201d<\/p>\n

— Tony Irwin, president of FRPO<\/i><\/b><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

The potential for infill development is important for two reasons, says Tony Irwin, president of FRPO.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of the sites are concentrated outside of the downtown core in relatively affordable markets,\u201d he says. \u201cThe other thing that\u2019s important is that over 35 per cent of the potential units that we identify through this report are within 800 meters of a current or future transit station.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

That amounts to slightly more than 60,000 new rental units possible within a 10-minute walk of rapid transit. It\u2019s a notable number when the government of Ontario commits to<\/span> building around transit<\/span><\/a> for \u201chealthy, connected communities\u201d and COVID-19 recovery.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toronto city Councillor Brad Bradford has a dual perspective on the issue. Citing outdated systems and overzealous NIMBYism, Bradford has said Toronto is stuck with \u201c<\/span>a strong aversion to change<\/span><\/a>.\u201d He\u2019s an urban planner who worked for the city\u2019s planning department before jumping into municipal politics; now he represents Ward 19, Beaches — East York.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf we could unlock development on these transit-oriented, rental infill sites, overnight we\u2019d have an incredible impact on our city\u2019s housing affordability crisis,\u201d he says.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cTo be clear, I say this not because new supply would solve this problem instantly. We know that supply alone does not fix affordability. We also need the right kinds of supply in the right places \u2014 supply like \u2018<\/span>missing middle<\/span><\/a>\u2019 housing, which is more livable and more practical for families, for example.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Toronto is making some moves, Bradford says: The city is poised to implement inclusionary zoning policies that would require a percentage of units built around transit hubs to be affordable; the<\/span> Open Door program<\/span><\/a> already incentivizes and fast-tracks affordable rental<\/a> development; and the city is also working to modernize and improve the development process more broadly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ground-related and mid-rise developments better for markets, economist says<\/b><\/p>\n

Diana Petramala\u2019s projections for a rental unit shortage are more conservative: \u201cMy own estimates suggest that\u2019s a bit high,\u201d she says, citing current construction underway and long-term impacts of COVID-19.<\/span><\/p>\n

Senior economist at Ryerson University\u2019s Centre for Urban Policy and Land Development, Petramala\u2019s previous role was housing and real estate expert and macro forecaster at TD Bank.<\/span><\/p>\n

In a chart, she illustrates the big picture across Ontario over almost 70 years: \u201cThere is a lot less building in Ontario to meet Millennial demand than when Boomers were entering the labour market and housing market.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Housing completions in Ontario during Boomer and Millennial generations, scaled by population. Chart prepared by senior economist Diana Petramala using Statistics Canada and CMHC data.<\/b><\/p>\n

Although her anticipated shortfall figure is lower, Petramala sees the potential in existing sites.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI do agree that there\u2019s a lot of potential for infill construction in the Toronto CMA, even the greater Golden Horseshoe, and it goes beyond the downtown areas that are already built,\u201d she says. \u201cThere\u2019s a lot of capacity to build along transit lines. I think that it\u2019s enough potential, for my own estimates, to absorb all the population growth that is expected out to 2051.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Petramala cautions against building too much too fast \u2014 especially high-density and especially condos \u2014 pointing to the late-1980s homebuilding frenzy and the subsequent 1990 housing market crash that followed, rippling through developers, banks and investors, and then the economy more broadly. Her chart shows that boom-bust as well.<\/span><\/p>\n

Instead, mid-rise developments and ground-related housing \u2014 which includes semis, townhouses and stacked towns \u2014 are \u201csafer and healthier\u201d for both markets and communities, Petramala says.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u201cYou get all kinds of financial risks associated with building too many condos and not enough ground-related housing,\u201d Petramala says. \u201cOn the condo side, how sustainable are those investments? And then on the ground-related side, are people taking on too much debt to buy these units?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span>Land economics: Tall, affordable buildings vs. short, luxury ones<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/h3>\n

<\/h3>\n

<\/h3>\n

<\/h3>\n

<\/h3>\n

<\/h3>\n

\u201cOver half of Toronto\u2019s households are renters. The rental market is a key component of housing affordability and without new supply, our housing system gets stuck.\u201d<\/span><\/h3>\n

— Brad Bradford, Toronto City Councillor Beaches – East York | Ward 19<\/i><\/b><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ground-related housing, missing middle, mid-rise, medium density \u2014 these developments are the \u201cgold standard\u201d but aren\u2019t easy, as city builder Brandon Donnelly<\/span> summed up in a post.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s a conundrum: Builders want taller buildings to make financial sense, communities often want heights to come down. To recoup costs for a mid-rise project,<\/span> builders charge luxury prices<\/span><\/a>, thus the expense of a mid-rise build is passed down to the consumer.<\/span><\/p>\n

Irwin says FRPO\u2019s rental providers are constricted by these realities. His membership wants to build a variety of units, not just luxury ones.<\/span><\/p>\n

A project may be approved by the city, for example, but only if 12 storeys are removed from the building\u2019s height: \u201cThe economics simply don\u2019t support that,\u201d Irwin says.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI recognize that you have to be responsive to different points of view [of the community],\u201d he says, \u201cbut there has to be a way to \u2026 make projects realistic, and approve projects that are economically feasible.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Purpose-built rentals offer more stability than condos bought by investors and rented out: Condo landlords can sell the unit or decide to use it themselves, sending the renter bouncing into the market again.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cOver the last two or three decades, very little purpose-built rental housing has been built in the Toronto area,\u201d Irwin says. \u201cThere\u2019s nothing wrong with condominiums, but we need a mixture of different housing types. And we need an environment that definitely encourages and supports purpose-built rentals.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Councillor Bradford acknowledges the \u201cland economics\u201d and financial challenges, noting the federal government has started offering<\/span> low-interest capital<\/span><\/a> for rentals via its National Housing Strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThere are HST reforms that move the dial on rental viability,\u201d he adds. \u201cThat\u2019s something that would need to come from the province.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

However the pieces come together, everyone agrees: The region needs more supply.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cOver half of Toronto\u2019s households are renters,\u201d Bradford says. \u201cThe rental market is a key component of housing affordability and without new supply, our housing system gets stuck.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Across Toronto and the wider region, rental sites could potentially add up to 176,000 new units to meet crushing demand. These 950 infill sites are already purchased and zoned \u2014 there\u2019s simply room and an opportunity to add more. A recent rental market study projects a shortage of up to 200,000 rental units in the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":1817,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"coauthors":[38],"class_list":["post-1804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rental-guides"],"yoast_head":"\nOne solution to Toronto\u2019s housing crisis could be hiding in plain sight\u00a0<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/rentals.ca\/blog\/one-solution-to-torontos-housing-crisis-could-be-hiding-in-plain-sight\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"One solution to Toronto\u2019s housing crisis could be hiding in plain sight\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Across Toronto and the wider region, rental sites could potentially add up to 176,000 new units to meet crushing demand. 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